As we have documented here multiple times, the decision of Kate Brown, Pat Allen, and Colt Gill to force our kids into the mythical "distance learning" in spite of the successes of many states in getting their kids back in school and the data showing that kids are not "superspreaders", has severe and long lasting consequences for them. This well-known fact was clearly spelled out, along with the consequences, in a recently peer-reviewed study published in the Journal of the American Medical Association.

The descriptions are self-explanatory, and gut-wrenching.

Introduction

In early 2020, school closures were widely instituted across the United States as a coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) containment strategy. The rationale for closures was 2-fold. First, at least initially, the risks that the virus posed to children were unclear but worthy of precaution. Second, it was assumed that children might represent important vectors for disease spread even if they were themselves unaffected or asymptomatic. Both of these considerations appeared to justify the harm of missed education in order to minimize the population-level risk of disease. In the ensuing months, data have emerged indicating that COVID-19 infection poses significantly less direct risk to children to adults.1,2 While the scientific evidence on transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by children remains in flux, recent studies indicate that young children (<10 years) appear less likely to serve as vectors for COVID-19 transmission.3,4 Although the risks of keeping schools open drove decisions made in the early phases of the pandemic, the probable harm to children associated with school closure were less explicitly discussed.5 The public debate has pitted “school closures” against “lives saved,” or the education of children against the health of the community. Presenting the tradeoffs in this way obscures the very real health consequences of interrupted education.

These consequences are especially dire for young children. There is little reason to believe that virtual learning environments can be effective for primary school–aged children. A meta-analysis6 of 99 experimental studies included only 5 conducted in school-aged children, and they were primarily in fifth through eighth grade. The meta-analysis concluded that “the mean effect size [for online learning] is not significant for the seven contrasts involving K-12 students.”6(pXV) That so few studies have even been conducted in this age group is also telling. A recent study comparing Indiana children in grades 3 through 8 who switched from brick-and-mortar to virtual schooling “experienced large, negative effects in math and [English/language arts] that were sustained across time”.7(p170) Sal Khan, a widely respected innovator in the field of distance learning, reported that distance learning approaches do not work for younger students.8 Furthermore, it is not clear how much access to remote instruction primary school–aged children actually received during the spring of 2020. For example, in its March 2020 guidelines for districts, the Illinois Department of Education recommended that primary school children have a maximum of 60 to 120 minutes per day in remote learning, representing a fraction of a regular school day.9 In 2 national surveys, teachers of all grades reported that only 60% of their students were regularly engaging in distance learning at all, and only 27% of teachers took attendance.10-12 Accordingly, it is reasonable to infer that primary school–aged children received minimal meaningful instruction beyond what is being delivered by their parents or other caregivers at home.13 It is not surprising, then, that the National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine’s report on school openings13 concluded that districts should make returning primary school children to in-person classes a priority.

Evidence suggests that missing school has adverse effects on eventual educational attainment. A longitudinal study of teacher strikes in Argentina revealed that disrupted schooling lowered graduation rates, total educational attainment, and subsequent income.14 An educational reform in Belgium differentially affected Flemish-speaking and French-speaking parts of the country and resulted in strikes of approximately 60 days in the French-speaking part of the country against none in the Flemish-speaking part. Using this natural experiment in a difference-in-difference framework, economists estimated the long-term effects of these strikes on educational attainment to be a 5.8% reduction in total years of educational attainment, a somewhat larger effect than that identified in Argentina.15 Prolonged strike studies in the United States and Canada are lacking, but even short-term strikes were found to result in diminished test scores.16,17 One US report18 found that the single best predictor of high-school graduation was fourth-grade reading test scores: 23% of children who are not reading at grade level by the end of third grade will not graduate high school, compared with 9% of those who are. The risks are even greater for low-income Black or Hispanic students: 33% of those not reading at grade level will not graduate from high school. These educational impairments are in turn consequential for mortality: the quality and quantity of education received today have considerable effects on life expectancy.19-22

The American Academy of Pediatrics’ policy statement on school reopening suggested that science drive decision-making.23

Unfortunately, things like data on kids themselves is not what matters to Kate and Pat et al; to them it's all about inflated and arbitrary "community infection" rates.

Doing so requires a better-informed estimate of the tradeoffs being considered. The primary objective of this study was to model the expected years of life lost (YLL) in association with primary school closures in early 2020 and to compare them to potential YLL had schools remained open.

Key Points

Question Based on the current understanding of the associations between school disruption and decreased educational attainment and between decreased educational attainment and lower life expectancy, is it possible to estimate the association between school closure during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic and decreased life expectancy of publicly educated primary school–aged children in the United States?

Findings This decision analytical model found that missed instruction during 2020 could be associated with an estimated 5.53 million years of life lost. This loss in life expectancy was likely to be greater than would have been observed if leaving primary schools open had led to an expansion of the first wave of the pandemic.

Let that sink in. 5.53 million years of life lost because of paranoid, deluisional fear of a virus that does not affect kids.

Meaning These findings suggest that the decision to close US public primary schools in the early months of 2020 may be associated with a decrease in life expectancy for US children.

Closing schools cost kids years of life.

Abstract

Importance United States primary school closures during the 2020 coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic affected millions of children, with little understanding of the potential health outcomes associated with educational disruption.

Objective To estimate the potential years of life lost (YLL) associated with the COVID-19 pandemic conditioned on primary schools being closed or remaining open.

Design, Setting, and Participants This decision analytical model estimated the association between school closures and reduced educational attainment and the association between reduced educational attainment and life expectancy using publicly available data sources, including data for 2020 from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the US Social Security Administration, and the US Census Bureau. Direct COVID-19 mortality and potential increases in mortality that might have resulted if school opening led to increased transmission of COVID-19 were also estimated.

Main Outcomes and Measures Years of life lost.

Results A total of 24.2 million children aged 5 to 11 years attended public schools that were closed during the 2020 pandemic, losing a median of 54 (interquartile range, 48-62.5) days of instruction. Missed instruction was associated with a mean loss of 0.31 (95% credible interval [CI], 0.10-0.65) years of final educational attainment for boys and 0.21 (95% CI, 0.06-0.46) years for girls. Summed across the population, an estimated 5.53 million (95% CI, 1.88-10.80) YLL may be associated with school closures. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported a total of 88 241 US deaths from COVID-19 through the end of May 2020, with an estimated 1.50 million (95% CI, 1.23-1.85 million) YLL as a result. Had schools remained open, 1.47 million (95% credible interval, 0.45-2.59) additional YLL could have been expected as a result, based on results of studies associating school closure with decreased pandemic spread. Comparing the full distributions of estimated YLL under both “schools open” and “schools closed” conditions, the analysis observed a 98.1% probability that school opening would have been associated with a lower total YLL than school closure.

Conclusions and Relevance In this decision analytical model of years of life potentially lost under differing conditions of school closure, the analysis favored schools remaining open. Future decisions regarding school closures during the pandemic should consider the association between educational disruption and decreased expected lifespan and give greater weight to the potential outcomes of school closure on children’s health.

But can we expect that from Kate? Again, when your sole goal is achieving the lowest "community infection" rates, and everything else, including the well-being of our kids is secondary because of ego and a desire for complete control, the kids are thrown by the wayside.